USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.97% to 147.58. Week ending 2024-08-16 rose 0.37%. What happened.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.97%	-144.3 Pips
Week 242024-08-16	0.37%	53.699 Pips
August	-1.45%	-216.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech (Jackson Hole Symposium)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the August flash estimate for the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 67.8 points, up from 66.4 points in July, indicating a slight improvement in consumer outlook (source: University of Michigan). On the housing front, U.S. Housing Starts in July dropped to 1.238 million, down from 1.353 million in June, and Building Permits fell to 1.396 million from the revised June figure of 1.454 million (source: Census Bureau). Retail sales showed modest growth, with Monthly Retail Trade increasing by 1% in July, up from a flat 0% in June (source: Census Bureau). The labor market showed resilience as Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending August 10 fell to 227,000 compared to 234,000 in the previous week (source: Department of Labor). U.S. inflation data revealed mixed signals: the monthly CPI Inflation Rate moved up to 0.2% in July from -0.1% in June, while the annual CPI Inflation Rate slightly decreased to 2.9% from 3% in June (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding Food & Energy dropped to 0% in July from 0.3% in June, and on a yearly basis, the PPI reduced to 2.2% from 2.7% (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

In Japan, economic growth showed positive momentum with the Q2 flash estimate of GDP rising by 0.8% compared to a contraction of -0.5% in Q1 (source: Cabinet Office).

The mixed economic data from the United States, coupled with positive GDP growth from Japan, influenced the USDJPY pair. The rising U.S. consumer sentiment and retail sales were overshadowed by declining housing starts, building permits, and producer prices. These mixed economic signals likely contributed to a less optimistic outlook on U.S. economic strength. Meanwhile, Japan’s improved GDP performance has made the Japanese yen more attractive relative to the U.S. dollar. Consequently, USDJPY on Friday experienced a decline of -0.97%, settling at 147.5800. Overall, for the week ending August 16, USDJPY rose slightly by 0.37%, reflecting the market’s volatility and reaction to the nuanced economic data from both countries.

From social media

Japan's GDP Grows 3.1% in April-June, First Positive Growth in Two Quarters: Japan's GDP for the April-June period this year showed a real growth rate of 3.1% on an annualized basis, the Cabinet Office announced on Thursday. (News On Japan) https://t.co/aFLPnZ7jwd

— News On Japan (@newsonjapan) August 15, 2024

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.97% to 147.58. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending ,2024-08-16, the pair rose 0.37% or 53.699 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 149.32 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 147.66. On the downside, we are looking at week low 146.08 or 146.00 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 149.32 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDJPY is down by -1.45% or -216.5 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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