GBPUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-09-13 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.16% | -20.8 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2024-09-13 | -0.09% | -11.4 Pips |  |
||
| September | -0.34% | -44.2 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (1-mth) Wed 07:00 AM Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (12-mth) Wed 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM Interest Rate Projections Thu 12:00 PM Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate) 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)
What happened over the week
The U.S. saw an increase in the Consumer Sentiment Index for September, rising to 69 points from 67.9 in August, according to the University of Michigan. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose slightly to 230,000 in the week ending September 7th, an increase from the 228,000 recorded the previous week, reported the Department of Labor. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) on a year-over-year basis for August, decreasing to 1.7% from 2.2% in July. The month-over-month PPI for August saw a slight increase to 0.2%, up from 0.1% in July. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates for both the month and year ending in August remained relatively stable but showed a minor decline, with the 12-month rate decreasing to 2.5% from 2.9% in July, and the monthly rate holding at 0.2%.
The economic landscape in the UK depicted growth, as the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% in Q2 2024, following a 0.7% rise in Q1. Year-over-year, GDP growth was recorded at 0.9% for Q2 2024, as outlined by the Office for National Statistics. Meanwhile, the UK labor market exhibited some weaknesses. The Claimant Count for August 2024 increased on both monthly and yearly bases, while job vacancies decreased over the quarter ending in August. Additionally, the number of workforce jobs in June 2024 increased by 503,000 compared to the previous year but dropped by 28,000 on the quarter.
The GBPUSD pair experienced a decline of 0.16% to 1.31220 on Friday, with a weekly drop of 0.09% by the week ending September 13, 2024. The decline in GBPUSD could be attributed to a mix of economic data from both the U.S. and the UK, providing a complex outlook for investors. The upcoming high-impact events, such as the U.S. Monthly Retail Trade data, the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, and major interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, are likely to induce further volatility in the currency pair. Market participants will be closely monitoring these indicators for clues on future monetary policy directions, which could significantly affect the value of GBP against USD. The anticipated Fed and BoE interest rate decisions will be particularly pivotal in shaping market expectations and subsequently impacting GBPUSD movements.
From X (Twitter)
Pay excluding bonuses grew by 5.1% in the year to May to July 2024; including bonuses it was up 4.0%, though this comparison is affected by last year’s NHS and civil service one-off payments.
Read Labour market overview ➡️ https://t.co/LADdyoefyv pic.twitter.com/So7ERyAv1Q
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 10, 2024
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.16% to 1.31. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-09-13, the pair dropped -0.09% or -11.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.32 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.31. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.30 or 1.30 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.30 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of September, GBPUSD is down by -0.34% or -44.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.33 |
| R2 | 1.32 |
| R1 | 1.32 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.31 |
| S1 | 1.30 |
| S2 | 1.29 |
| S3 | 1.29 |
You might also be interested in:
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report – Retail Source: Census Bureau
People claiming unemployment benefits by constituency Source: House of Commons Index of Production, UK: July 2024 time series Source: National Statistics UK Trade: July 2024 Source: National Statistics UK Trade: July 2024 time series Source: National Statistics Index of Production, UK: July 2024 Source: National Statistics GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2024 time series Source: National Statistics GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2024 Source: National Statistics Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau UK Labour Market: September 2024 Source: National Statistics Quarterly Financial Report Source: Census Bureau