AUDUSD rises 0.69% amid mixed economic data from the US and Australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.69%	46.9 Pips
Week to-date	1.43%	96.3 Pips
September	0.21%	14.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In the United States, the economic data for September revealed several positive trends. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey improved to 1.7 points, a notable increase from -7 points in August, according to the Philadelphia Fed. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending 14 September declined to 219,000 from the previous 231,000, as reported by the Department of Labor. Furthermore, the Census Bureau indicated a rise in Building Permits to 1.475 million from 1.406 million in July, and Housing Starts increased to 1.356 million from 1.237 million. However, the Federal Reserve has adjusted its interest rate projections downward, with the federal funds rate dropping to 5% from 5.5%, and first-year projections falling to 3.4% from 4.1%. Other interest rate projections showed minor adjustments, except for the longer-term projection which increased slightly to 2.9% from 2.8%.

In Australia, the economic outlook was mixed. Part-time employment saw a significant rise in August, reaching 50.6 thousand from a revised -15.8 thousand in July. The participation rate remained steady at 67.1%. However, the overall labor force monthly employment change dropped to 47.5 thousand from 58.2 thousand, and full-time employment decreased dramatically to -3.1 thousand from a revised 64.8 thousand. Despite these changes, the unemployment rate held stable at 4.2%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The mixed economic data from both countries is likely to influence the AUDUSD exchange rate. Positive employment data and increased building permits in the U.S. may bolster the USD. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates and projections could weaken the USD’s appeal. Conversely, despite a rise in part-time employment in Australia, the drop in full-time employment and overall employment change might put downward pressure on the AUD. As a result, the AUDUSD pair might experience fluctuations, but the recent rise in the pair by 0.69% to 0.68101 indicates a short-term strength in the AUD possibly due to market expectations of sustained Australian economic resilience or temporary USD weakness post-Fed rate decisions.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.69% to 0.68101. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.68537 with break above could target R2 at 0.68973 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.67371 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.68390 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.43% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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