USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.09% | -7.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.02% | -1.5 Pips | |
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| September | 0.07% | 6.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
The United States has reported several significant economic updates. The U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for September demonstrated an improvement, rising to 1.7 points from -7 points in August, as indicated by the Philadelphia Fed. Furthermore, initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending 14 September dropped to 219,000, down from the previous figure of 231,000 (revised from 230,000), according to the Department of Labor. Additionally, there were changes in the U.S. interest rate projections across various time frames. The Federal Reserve noted a decrease in the current Federal Funds Rate to 5%, compared to the prior rate of 5.5%. Interest rate projections for the first and second years also dropped to 3.4% (from 4.1%) and 2.9% (from 3.1%) respectively, while projections for the longer-term increased slightly to 2.9% from 2.8%. The projection for the third year remained steady at 2.9%.
Moreover, the U.S. building permits in August observed a rise to 1.475 million, an increase from a revised 1.406 million in July, as well as an increase in housing starts to 1.356 million from a revised 1.237 million for the same period, according to the Census Bureau.
The recent fluctuation in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections and the decrease in the Fed Funds Rate to 5% have likely contributed to a short-term dip in the USDCHF currency pair, which dropped by 0.09% to 0.84755. The reduced interest rates make the USD less attractive to investors seeking higher returns, leading to a potential depreciation of the currency. The positive economic data, such as improved manufacturing outlook and lower unemployment claims, might provide some support to the USD; however, the prevailing lower interest rates could exert downward pressure. In the absence of major upcoming events, the USDCHF pair remains in consolidation as market participants digest these mixed economic signals.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.09% to 0.84755. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.84445 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.85150 or trades above daily pivot 0.84797. Break above could target R1 at 0.85108. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.84445 (S1) and daily low of 0.84487 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.84487 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.85771 |
| R2 | 0.8546 |
| R1 | 0.85108 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.84797 |
| S1 | 0.84445 |
| S2 | 0.84134 |
| S3 | 0.83782 |
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