USDCHF on Friday rose 0.37% to 0.85001. Week ending 2024-09-20 rose 0.27%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.37%	31.2 Pips
Week 2024-09-20	0.27%	23.1 Pips
September	0.36%	30.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 08:30 AM SNB Interest Rate Decision (Policy Rate)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 02:20 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In September, the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey recorded an upturn, rising to 1.7 points from -7 points in August, as reported by the Philadelphia Fed. This indicates a positive shift in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the Department of Labor announced that U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending 14 September dropped to 219,000 from a revised figure of the previous 231,000, suggesting improvements in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has adjusted interest rate projections, decreasing them to 4.4% from 5.1%. Additionally, the U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision resulted in a reduction of the Federal Funds Rate to 5%, down from 5.5%, which was below the forecast. On the housing front, the Census Bureau reported a rise in U.S. Building Permits for August to 1.475 million from a revised 1.406 million in July, alongside an increase in U.S. Housing Starts to 1.356 million from the July figure of 1.237 million.

The recent data from the U.S. had implications on the USDCHF exchange rate. Last Friday, the USDCHF rose by 0.37% to 0.85001, contributing to a weekly increase of 0.27% for the week ending 20 September 2024. The combination of improved manufacturing outlook, lower unemployment claims, and positive housing data likely supported the USD’s strength. However, the significant reduction in interest rate projections and the Federal Funds Rate might introduce some volatility in the USDCHF pair. This week’s upcoming events including the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, U.S. GDP annual rate, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and the U.S. PCE Price Index will further influence the pair. A surprising SNB decision or strong U.S. economic data could reinforce the USD and maintain or increase the USDCHF exchange rate, while dovish comments from the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators could result in a decline.

From X (Twitter)

Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in August #statistics https://t.co/hELC3LHy1z pic.twitter.com/5awfmcHpeO

— Federal Statistical Office FSO (@swissstatistics) September 16, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.37% to 0.85. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-09-20, the pair rose 0.27% or 23.1 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.85 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.85. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.84 or 0.84 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.85 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of September, USDCHF is up by 0.36% or 30.7 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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