NZDUSD rises 1.01% to 0.63250 on positive New Zealand consumer confidence, mixed US economic data

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	1.01%	63.3 Pips
Week to-date	1.42%	88.8 Pips
September	0.99%	61.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In New Zealand, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index shows an increase to 95.1 points in September, up from 92.2 points in August. This rise signals an improvement in consumer sentiment, indicating that the New Zealand public feels more optimistic about the economic outlook and their financial situation. Consumer confidence is a critical indicator as it can suggest potential increases in consumer spending, which in turn, can drive economic growth.

In the United States, several economic data points have emerged. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, indicating robust economic growth. Additionally, Pending Home Sales improved to 0.6% in August from a previous decline of -5.5% in July, showing signs of recovery in the housing market. The Census Bureau reports that Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation increased by 0.5% in August, recovering from a revised -0.2% in July. However, overall Durable Goods – New Orders remained flat at 0% following a revised 9.9% increase in July, reflecting mixed signals in manufacturing demand.

On another note, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims slightly dropped to 218K in the week ending 21 September, from a previous figure of 219K, as reported by the Department of Labor, suggesting a stable labor market. Conversely, new-home sales decreased by 4.7% in August, reversing the significant gain of 10.6% in July, pointing to volatility in the housing sector. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft saw a slight increase to 0.2% in August from a revised -0.1% in July, indicating cautious optimism within business investment.

Given these data points, the rise in the NZDUSD to 0.63250, or an increase of 1.01%, on Thursday can be attributed to the confluence of stronger consumer confidence in New Zealand and the mixed economic signals from the United States. The robust U.S. GDP growth could generally bolster the USD, but the softening in new-home sales and various labor market indicators may have stoked uncertainties, creating a conducive environment for the NZD to strengthen. The upcoming high-impact release of the PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, will also be keenly watched as it could further influence the USD, depending on how it aligns with market expectations regarding inflation and consumer price stability.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Thursday rose 1.01% to 0.63250. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.6354 with break above could target R2 at 0.6383 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.62520 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.63320 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.42% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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