AUDUSD drops slightly on Monday, ends September up 1.8% amid consolidation

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	-0.1%	-7.2 Pips
Week to-date	-0.08%	-5.3 Pips
September	1.8%	122.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 01:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) experienced a slight increase in September, rising to 46.6 points from 46.1 points in August. While this uptick indicates a marginal improvement in manufacturing activity, the index remains below the 50-point threshold, signaling a continuing contraction in the sector. The modest rise reflects some stabilization, but economic challenges persist as businesses navigate supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.

In Australia, the market eagerly awaits the release of the Retail Trade Turnover data, scheduled for early Tuesday morning. Given the seasonally adjusted figure, traders and analysts anticipate this high-impact economic indicator to provide insights into consumer spending trends and the overall health of the Australian economy. A positive or negative surprise in the retail sales figures could significantly influence market sentiment and investor confidence.

Regarding the AUDUSD exchange rate, the potential implications are noteworthy. On Monday, the pair experienced a minor decline of 0.1%, settling at 0.69180. However, for the entire month of September, the pair appreciated by 1.8%, gaining 122.2 pips. The upcoming retail trade turnover data from Australia is poised to ignite volatility in the pair. Should the retail trade turnover exceed expectations, it could bolster the Australian dollar, potentially pushing the AUDUSD higher. Conversely, if the data disappoints, it might weaken the AUD, leading to further consolidation or downside movement in the pair. Given the current scenario, the AUDUSD is likely to remain sensitive to economic releases and global market trends in the near term.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Monday dropped -0.1% to 0.69180. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.68966 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.69426 or trades above daily pivot 0.69196. Break above could target R1 at 0.6941. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.68966 (S1) and daily low of 0.68982 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.68982 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

AUDUSD ended month of September trading session up by 1.8% or 122.2 pips higher.

Key levels to watch out:

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