NZDUSD drops 0.34% to 0.63468 amid mixed economic data

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	-0.34%	-21.8 Pips
Week to-date	-0.33%	-21 Pips
September	1.33%	83.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence index experienced a significant boost in Q3, improving to -1% from a notably lower figure of -44% in Q2. This improvement, reported by NZIER, suggests increased business optimism regarding future economic conditions. Despite this positive outlook, the building consents for new dwellings presented a more concerning picture, with a seasonally adjusted decline of -5.3% in August, following an impressive revised growth of 26.4% in July. This data from Stats NZ indicates a volatility that reflects potential challenges in the housing market, possibly due to changing economic conditions or policy adjustments.

In the United States, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September showed a slight increase to 46.6 points from 46.1 points in August. Although the PMI remains below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, this increment indicates marginally improved manufacturing activity in the region. Despite the moderate rise, the index still reflects persistent difficulties in the manufacturing sector.

The performance of the NZDUSD currency pair reflects broader market sentiments and the mixed economic data from New Zealand. On Monday, the NZDUSD fell by -0.34% to 0.63468, but it ended September with a gain of 1.33%, equivalent to 83.5 pips higher. The pair is currently in a consolidation phase, which suggests a period of little directional movement as traders digest the recent economic data and its implications. The improved business confidence in New Zealand provides a fundamentally supportive backdrop for the NZD; however, the sharp drop in building consents may temper bullish sentiment. The slight uptick in the U.S. Chicago PMI contributes to a mixed outlook for the USD. With no major events scheduled for the day, traders may closely monitor upcoming economic indicators and policy statements for clearer market direction. Overall, these mixed signals are likely to contribute to the pair’s consolidation in the near term.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Monday dropped -0.34% to 0.63468. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.63295 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.63787 or trades above daily pivot 0.63541. Break above could target R1 at 0.63714. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.63295 (S1) and daily low of 0.63368 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.63368 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

NZDUSD ended month of September trading session up by 1.33% or 83.5 pips higher.

Key levels to watch out:

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