AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.83% to 0.67940. Week ending 2024-10-04 moved lower by -1.8%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.83%	-56.7 Pips
Week 2024-10-04	-1.8%	-124.8 Pips
October	-1.76%	-121.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the unemployment rate experienced a slight decline, decreasing from 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 Total, which is an alternative measure of labor underutilization, also saw a decrease from 7.9% to 7.7% during the same period. Nonfarm payroll employment increased significantly to 254,000 in September, showing a marked improvement from the revised figure of 159,000, up from the initial 142,000. However, the average hourly earnings showed a minor decrease over a month, from 0.5% in August to 0.4% in September. Over a 12-month period, these earnings increased marginally from 3.9% to 4% for the same timeframe. While new orders for manufactured goods decreased by 0.2% in August, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) increased to 8.04 million, indicating a stable job market.

In Australia, the International Trade in Goods reported a slight increase to 5,644 million from a revised figure of 5,636 million in August, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Despite this increase, imports of goods showed a slight increment from -0.6% to -0.2%, while exports faced a decline from 0.3% to -0.2% in the same month. Building dwelling approvals notably decreased to -6.1% in August, a significant drop from 10.4% in July. However, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover for August rose to 0.7%, an improvement from 0% in July, suggesting a positive move in consumer spending amidst challenging conditions.

For the AUDUSD, these mixed economic indicators from both countries suggest a complex scenario ahead. The U.S. improvements in employment and job openings, coupled with slightly higher average earnings over a year, sustain the dollar’s strength. Conversely, the Australian dollar faces pressure due to weakening export figures and a substantial drop in building approvals, offset slightly by improved retail turnover. The fall in AUDUSD by -0.83% to 0.67940, along with a week’s decline of -1.8%, reflects market sentiment skewing towards the U.S. dollar’s favor in light of these results. Upcoming high-impact U.S. economic events such as the FOMC Meeting Minutes and CPI inflation data could further influence this currency pair, potentially bolstering the dollar if economic strength persists.

From X (Twitter)

"The result was driven by a 16.5% fall in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses, following a July increase," Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics

Visit https://t.co/MgEhAuZTwT pic.twitter.com/RqqJcaE6WD

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) October 1, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.83% to 0.68. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-04, the pair dropped -1.8% or -124.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.67 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.67 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.69 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.68 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -1.76% or -121.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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