AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.13% to 0.67500. Week ending 2024-10-11 moved lower by -0.65%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.13%	9 Pips
Week 2024-10-11	-0.65%	-44 Pips
October	-2.4%	-165.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
Thu 01:30 AM Labour Force Monthly Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, several economic indicators exhibit mixed signals about economic health. The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 68.9 in October from 70.1 in September, indicating waning consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw no change in September, maintaining a flat reading compared to a 0.2% rise in August. Excluding the volatile food and energy segments, PPI increased modestly by 0.2% in September after a 0.3% rise in August, but the 12-month rate moved up to 2.8% from 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) echoed a similar trend as it rose by 0.2% in September, maintaining this rate for three consecutive months, with a 2.4% increase over the previous 12 months, marking the smallest yearly rise since February 2021. Initial unemployment insurance claims surged to 258K in the week ending October 5, representing a significant hike from 225K, and the highest level since August 2023 as per the Department of Labor.

The recent economic data from the U.S. suggests a sluggish performing economy, with consumer sentiment declining and stagnation seen in PPI. The increase in unemployment claims may hint at a weakening labor market. These indicators could have a mixed impact on the AUDUSD currency pair. Typically, weaker U.S. economic data can cause the U.S. dollar to depreciate, potentially supporting the Australian dollar. However, the movements in AUDUSD will also be subject to Australian economic data announcements, notably the high-impact labor force employment change report expected soon. If Australian data releases indicate strong economic performance relative to the U.S., the AUD might gain further against the USD. In the short term, the performance of AUDUSD will remain sensitive to both U.S. and Australian economic reports and market sentiment towards risk and interest rate differentials.

From X (Twitter)

The Minutes of the September 2024 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board has been released: https://t.co/tptUg5Bmcn pic.twitter.com/YPCi9HuzVS

— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) October 8, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.13% to 0.68. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2024-10-11, the pair dropped -0.65% or -44 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.67.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.67 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.66 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.68 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.67 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -2.4% or -165.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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