EURUSD on Friday rose 0.01% to 1.09353. Week ending 2024-10-11 moved lower by -0.35%. What you need to know.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.01%	1.4 Pips
Week 2024-10-11	-0.35%	-38.6 Pips
October	-1.81%	-201.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
Tue 09:00 AM Euro area Bank Lending Survey
Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment showed a decrease in confidence to 68.9 points in October from 70.1 in September, as reported by the University of Michigan. Simultaneously, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September remained unchanged from August, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics noting a 12-month increase of 1.8%. Excluding food and energy, the annual PPI rate climbed to 2.8% in September, despite a monthly drop to 0.2%. Furthermore, initial unemployment insurance claims rose significantly to 258,000, the highest since early August 2023, indicating potential labor market stress. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also marked a 0.2% increase for September, maintaining the same pace recorded in the previous months, and a yearly rise of 2.4%, the smallest since early 2021.

Germany reported stability in the 12-month Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), remaining at 1.8% for September. Encouragingly, Germany’s trade balance improved notably to €22.5 billion, while unadjusted and seasonally adjusted industrial production figures showed significant improvement in August. However, new orders in manufacturing showed a downturn with a substantial decline in both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted figures, reflecting potential issues in the manufacturing sector. Overall, the Euro Area retail turnover saw a slight increase both monthly and annually, and the sentix Economic Index showed sentiment improvement in October.

The news suggests a mixed impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. While U.S. economic data indicates some softening momentum with lower consumer sentiment and higher unemployment claims, stable inflation figures may offer some support to the dollar. On the other hand, positive economic indicators from Germany, such as trade balance and industrial production, may fuel optimism for the euro. The upcoming European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and banking lending survey could add additional volatility. Consequently, the EUR/USD movement might face a pull-push scenario where the euro could regain ground from improved German data, but any adverse U.S. data could strengthen dollar support, especially if more significant U.S. economic events follow through the week. Overall, the nuanced interplay of these economic indicators may see the EUR/USD enter a consolidation phase unless a major economic catalyst shifts the balance decisively.

From X (Twitter)

Die #Inflationsrate in Deutschland lag im September 2024 bei +1,6 %. Das ist der niedrigste Wert seit Februar 2021 (+1,5 %). Hauptursache waren erneute Preisrückgänge bei Energie. Inflationstreibend wirkten dagegen höhere #Preise für Dienstleistungen. https://t.co/7UZzRarkZp #VPI pic.twitter.com/uuxpRpojeu

— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) October 11, 2024

CPI for all items rises 0.2% in September; shelter and food up https://t.co/dJyJeKmvth #CPI #BLSdata

— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) October 10, 2024

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.01% to 1.09. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-10-11, the pair dropped -0.35% or -38.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.09 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.08 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.10 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.09 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, EURUSD is down by -1.81% or -201.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate in September 2024 at +1.6% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Volume of retail trade up by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Services production up by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU Source: Eurostat
The transmission of monetary policy Source: European Central Bank