Nzdusd sees modest rise as mixed economic data from new zealand and us weigh on outlook

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.03%	1.8 Pips
Week to-date	-0.57%	-34.8 Pips
October	-4.55%	-288.4 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened lately

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the third quarter reflects a mixed picture. While the annual inflation rate decreased to 2.2% from 3.3% in the previous quarter, indicating some easing in inflationary pressures, the quarterly inflation rate rose slightly from 0.4% to 0.6%. Source: Stats NZ. This suggests that while inflation over the past year has slowed down, there is still some upward pressure on prices in the short term. Such a scenario indicates a moderately inflationary environment that might influence monetary policy decisions.

In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced a significant decrease from 11.5 points in September to -11.9 points in October. Source: New York Fed. This sharp decline into negative territory demonstrates a contraction in manufacturing activity within the region, hinting at potential economic challenges. This downturn might suggest weaker demand and potential slowdowns in the economic growth trajectory for the US, casting a shadow on overall economic confidence. The upcoming high-impact US Monthly Retail Trade data will be closely watched as it could provide further insights into consumer spending and economic health.

The NZDUSD exchange rate saw a modest rise of 0.03% to 0.60569, with the pair in a consolidation phase. The mixed economic data from New Zealand and the US implies an uncertain outlook for the currency pair. The easing of New Zealand’s annual inflation could reduce the urgency for aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which might weigh on the Kiwi dollar. Conversely, the significant drop in the US manufacturing index could weaken the US dollar, also affecting the pair. Market participants may remain cautious, considering the potential impacts of upcoming US retail trade data which is anticipated to cause volatility due to its high-impact nature. The NZDUSD rate might continue to fluctuate within a limited range unless there is more definitive data that signals a clear economic direction for either country.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.03% to 0.60569. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.60376 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60794 or trades above daily pivot 0.60585. Break above could target R1 at 0.60778. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.60376 (S1) and daily low of 0.60392 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.60794 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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