AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 0.67060. Week ending 2024-10-18 moved lower by -0.37%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.07%	4.4 Pips
Week 2024-10-18	-0.37%	-25.1 Pips
October	-3.03%	-209.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

In the United States, there have been notable changes in economic indicators as reported by various sources. The Census Bureau revealed that the building permits for September decreased to 1.428 million from a revised 1.47 million the previous month, indicating a slowdown in housing development activity. Similarly, housing starts also saw a slight decline to 1.354 million from an adjusted figure of 1.361 million in August. This consistency in reduced housing activity coincides with the Census Bureau’s report of an increase in monthly retail trade, which rose by 0.4% in September compared to August’s modest 0.1% rise, suggesting consumer spending is resilient amidst broader economic uncertainties. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed reported an improvement in the manufacturing business outlook survey, which climbed to 10.3 points in October from 1.7 points in September, reflecting growing optimism in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Department of Labor noted a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims to 241,000 for the week ending October 12, down from the prior figure of 258,000, hinting at a strengthening labor market.

In contrast, Australia’s economic indicators, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reveal positive momentum. The labor force monthly employment change showed a significant increase to 64.1K in September from 47.5K in August, highlighting robust job growth. Furthermore, the unemployment rate improved, slipping to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in the previous month. These figures indicate a healthy labor market in Australia, which could contribute positively to economic stability and growth.

The movement of AUDUSD, which saw a 0.07% increase to 0.67060 on Friday, could be influenced by the mixed economic data from both countries. The strengthening of the Australian labor market and the slight optimism in the U.S. manufacturing sector create a complex backdrop for the currency pair. However, the weaker housing market data in the U.S. may limit the USD’s strength, potentially providing some support to the AUD. Future movements in the currency pair are likely to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims data, which could affect market sentiment and risk perception. Traders will watch these figures closely as they form expectations about the U.S. economic outlook and its impact on the USD.

From X (Twitter)

"With employment rising by around 64,000 people and the number of unemployed falling around 9,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, where it has generally been over the past six months," Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics

For more, see https://t.co/PE2dEtEtgh pic.twitter.com/qPNTvmtriD

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) October 17, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 0.67. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-10-18, the pair dropped -0.37% or -25.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.67 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.67. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.67 or 0.67 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.67 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -3.03% or -209.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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