NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.11% to 0.60700. Week ending 2024-10-18 moved lower by -0.36%. What happened.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.11%	6.5 Pips
Week 2024-10-18	-0.36%	-21.7 Pips
October	-4.34%	-275.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators for September showed mixed signals. The Census Bureau reported a decrease in both building permits and housing starts. Building permits fell from 1.47 million in August to 1.428 million, indicating a cooling in future construction activity. Housing starts also saw a slight decrease from 1.361 million in August to 1.354 million in September. Contrarily, the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed improvement, rising from 1.7 points in September to 10.3 points in October, suggesting a positive shift in the manufacturing sector. Retail trade saw a modest increase of 0.4% in September, up from 0.1% the previous month, demonstrating growth in consumer spending. Additionally, the Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims, which dropped to 241,000 for the week ending October 12, down from 258,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market.

In New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data showed mixed results for the third quarter. The 12-month CPI inflation rate decreased significantly from 3.3% in Q2 to 2.2% in Q3, as reported by Stats NZ. This drop suggests a reduction in inflationary pressures on an annual basis. However, quarterly CPI inflation increased to 0.6%, up from 0.4% in the second quarter, indicating that inflationary pressures may still be present in the short term.

Regarding the NZDUSD currency pair, recent movements saw a slight increase by 0.11% to 0.60700 on Friday, although the pair moved lower by -0.36% over the week ending October 18, 2024. The mixed economic data from the U.S., particularly the positive sentiment in manufacturing and retail sectors against softer housing data, could provide support for the U.S. dollar, potentially pressuring the NZDUSD lower. However, the decreased inflation rate in New Zealand might lend some support to the kiwi, as it reduces the immediate need for tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Looking ahead, upcoming U.S. unemployment claims could further influence the pair, depending on the job market health these numbers will signify.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Annual inflation at 2.2 percent.https://t.co/KpP6XQKYIT pic.twitter.com/LEic26q3Az

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) October 15, 2024

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.11% to 0.61. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-18, the pair dropped -0.36% or -21.7 pips lower.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.61 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.61. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.60 or 0.60 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.60 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, NZDUSD is down by -4.34% or -275.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on September 9 and 18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve