USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.24% to 0.86390. Week ending 2024-10-18 rose 0.65%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.24%	-20.4 Pips
Week 2024-10-18	0.65%	56 Pips
October	2.2%	185.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic data presents a mixed yet slightly improving economic outlook. The U.S. Building Permits for September decreased to 1.428 million from a revised 1.47 million in August, indicating a potential slowdown in future construction activity, as reported by the Census Bureau. Simultaneously, U.S. Housing Starts also reflected a decline, decreasing to 1.354 million from an adjusted figure of 1.361 million in the prior month, hinting at a stagnating housing market. On the manufacturing front, the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed showed a substantial increase in October, moving from 1.7 points in September to 10.3 points, suggesting a resurgence in manufacturing sector optimism. Retail trade delivered a positive outlook where U.S. Monthly Retail Trade rose to 0.4% in September, improving from the 0.1% seen in August, indicating stronger consumer spending. Labor market conditions showed improvement as well, with initial unemployment claims for the week ending on 12 October dropping to 241,000 from a previous 258,000, as per the Department of Labor.

The recent economic data from the U.S. has mixed implications for the USDCHF exchange rate. Although the decline in building permits and housing starts could signal weakness in the housing sector, improvements in manufacturing sentiment, retail sales, and reduced unemployment claims offer a more robust economic picture, which can support the U.S. dollar. However, the slight drop in USDCHF by 0.24% to 0.86390 suggests that the market may be reacting more to short-term data fluctuations or external factors. The overall weekly increase of 0.65% indicates a moderate upward trend. Future movements in USDCHF will likely hinge on upcoming impactful events like the release of Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims data, which could either reinforce or undermine recent gains depending on whether the data continues to reflect labor market strength.

From X (Twitter)

In September, Swiss inflation weakened to the slowest pace in more than three years, pointing to further monetary easing by the country’s central bank. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/kRkXHQk971

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) October 4, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.24% to 0.86. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-10-18, the pair rose 0.65% or 56 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.87 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.86. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.86 or 0.86 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.87 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, USDCHF is up by 2.2% or 185.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on September 9 and 18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve
Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in September Source: Federal Statistical Office