AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.42% to 0.66030. Week ending 2024-10-25 moved lower by -1.69%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Week Ending 2024-10-25

Open

High

Low

Close

0.67

0.66

Performance

Period

Pct

Chg

Momentum

Friday

-0.42%

-28.1 Pips

Week 2024-10-25

-1.69%

-113.8 Pips

October

-4.52%

-312.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 AM CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth)
Wed 12:30 AM Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Wed 12:30 AM Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Wed 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

The U.S. economic landscape for October showcased a modest improvement in consumer confidence with the Index of Consumer Sentiment rising to 70.5 from 68.9 in September as per the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Expectations maintained a constant 3%, reflecting steadiness in future outlooks. However, the manufacturing sector faced challenges with a slight decline in Durable Goods – New Orders by -0.8% in September, down from 0% in August, according to the Census Bureau. Despite this, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft saw an increase of 0.5% from a revised 0.3% in August, suggesting some resilience in business investments within certain sectors. In contrast, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation fell to 0.4% from a revised 0.6% the previous month. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense improved slightly to -1.1% from -1.3%. Additionally, the labor market displayed strength with Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims decreasing to 227K from the previous revised figure of 242K, indicating a potentially healthier employment environment, as reported by the Department of Labor.

Overshadowing these U.S. economic indicators, the AUDUSD currency pair experienced a -0.42% drop to 0.66030 by the end of the week ending October 25, marking a 10-week low since August 15, 2024. The Australian dollar’s weakening against the U.S. dollar could potentially react to upcoming key economic data releases. The anticipation of Australia’s CPI Inflation Rate, Monthly CPI Indicator, and Retail Trade Turnover may lead to volatility in the AUDUSD pair. Furthermore, upcoming U.S. economic releases, such as GDP annual rate and nonfarm payroll employment figures, could influence the pair by potentially reinforcing or challenging perceptions of economic divergence between the two economies. Should U.S. economic indicators particularly signal strength relative to Australia’s, it might further pressure the Australian dollar, sustaining its bearish trajectory against the U.S. dollar.

From X (Twitter)

"With employment rising by around 64,000 people and the number of unemployed falling around 9,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, where it has generally been over the past six months," Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics

For more, see https://t.co/PE2dEtEtgh pic.twitter.com/qPNTvmtriD

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) October 17, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.42% to 0.66. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-25, the pair dropped -1.69% or -113.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.66 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.65 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.67 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.66 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -4.52% or -312.8 pips lower.