NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.47% to 0.59770. Week ending 2024-10-25 moved lower by -1.64%. What you need to know.

NZDUSD Analysis

Week Ending 2024-10-25

Open

High

Low

Close

0.60

0.61

0.60

Performance

Period

Pct

Chg

Momentum

Friday

-0.47%

-28.3 Pips

Week 2024-10-25

-1.64%

-99.7 Pips

October

-5.8%

-368.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators presented a mixed picture in October and September. According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 68.9 points in September to 70.5 points in October, indicating a slight improvement in consumers’ outlook. The Consumer Expectations index, however, persisted at a steady rate of 3% during October. Data from the Census Bureau showed a decline in durable goods new orders by 0.8% in September compared to stagnation in August, suggesting a slip in the manufacturing momentum. Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, marked a positive adjustment by rising from 0.3% (revised from 0.2%) in August to 0.5% in September, while durable goods orders, excluding transportation, fell from 0.6% to 0.4%. A mild improvement was observed in durable goods orders excluding defense, moving from -1.3% to -1.1%. Furthermore, unemployment claims, as reported by the Department of Labor, decreased substantially to 227K, signifying an easing in the labor market conditions.

In New Zealand, September saw a favorable shift in the trade balance, due in part to an increase in exports and a reduction in imports. Stats NZ reported that exports climbed to $5.01 billion from $4.97 billion in August, strengthening the nation’s export base. Meanwhile, imports contracted slightly to $7.12 billion compared to $7.17 billion in the previous month. Consequently, New Zealand’s 12-month trade balance improved to a deficit of -9.09 billion NZD from a revised -9.29 billion NZD in August, suggesting a narrowing gap in trade imbalances.

The NZDUSD currency pair fell by 0.47% on Friday, closing at 0.59770, marking an 11-week low. Over the week ending October 25, 2024, the pair saw a total decline of 1.64%. The dip in NZDUSD is attributable to the mixed performance of economic indicators from both the U.S. and New Zealand. The weak tone in New Zealand’s trade data, despite some improvement in the trade balance, along with stronger U.S. employment data and expectations of key upcoming U.S. economic reports, placed downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar. Investors’ attention will now turn to critical U.S. data releases in the following week, including GDP, initial unemployment claims, the PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payroll Employment, which are likely to further influence the NZDUSD movements.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Annual inflation at 2.2 percent.https://t.co/KpP6XQKYIT pic.twitter.com/LEic26q3Az

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) October 15, 2024

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.47% to 0.60. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2024-10-25, the pair dropped -1.64% or -99.7 pips lower.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.59 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.59 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.61 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.60 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, NZDUSD is down by -5.8% or -368.3 pips lower.