USDCHF on Friday rose 0.05% to 0.86630. Week ending 2024-10-25 rose 0.16%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.05%	4 Pips
Week 2024-10-25	0.16%	13.7 Pips
October	2.48%	209.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 07:30 AM Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment saw an increase in October, climbing to 70.5 points from 68.9 points in September, as reported by the University of Michigan. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations remained unchanged at 3%, reflecting lingering apprehension about future economic conditions. The Census Bureau data revealed a decline in Durable Goods Orders for September, falling by 0.8% from previous stability in August. Nevertheless, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, excluding aircraft, showed resilience, increasing by 0.5% from the revised August figure of 0.3%. Adjustments were also evident in the Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation and defense, which showed mixed signals with a decrease to 0.4% and an improvement to -1.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the labor market displayed signs of strengthening as the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending on October 19 decreased significantly to 227K from the previous revised figure of 242K, according to the Department of Labor.

The USDCHF currency pair has shown positive momentum, climbing by 0.05% to 0.86630 on Friday, and registering a weekly rise of 0.16%. This also marked its highest level in ten weeks, reaching peaks last seen in mid-August 2024. The increase in U.S. consumer sentiment and the decrease in unemployment claims could provide support for the U.S. dollar, potentially exerting upward pressure on USDCHF. However, the mixed results from the durable goods data might temper enthusiasm for further dollar appreciation. Looking ahead, key economic data releases, including the U.S. GDP annual rate, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, the PCE Price Index, and U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment, as well as the Swiss CPI Inflation Rate, will be pivotal in shaping the USDCHF’s trajectory. Positive or negative surprises in these figures could spark volatility, influencing investor sentiment and expectations around interest rate adjustments, impacting the USDCHF exchange rate.

From X (Twitter)

In September, Swiss inflation weakened to the slowest pace in more than three years, pointing to further monetary easing by the country’s central bank. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/kRkXHQk971

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) October 4, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.05% to 0.87. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-25, the pair rose 0.16% or 13.7 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.87 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.87. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.86 or 0.86 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.87 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, USDCHF is up by 2.48% or 209.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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