USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.16% | 22.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.13% | 18.1 Pips | |
||
| October | 2.86% | 386.5 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 12:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Wed 08:15 PM CAD Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem speech Thu 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
On Tuesday, the USDCAD currency pair experienced an increase of 0.16%, reaching a rate of 1.39137. Analyzing the upcoming economic events, we anticipate significant developments with potential impacts on both the US and Canadian economies.
In the United States, attention is centered on the upcoming release of the GDP annual rate scheduled for Wednesday at 12:30 PM. This report typically has a high impact on market movements, as it reflects the economic growth and health of the US economy. A positive GDP figure can lead to the strengthening of the USD against other currencies, as it signals economic robustness and possibly further monetary policy tightening if inflation is present. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected GDP growth rate may prompt concerns regarding the economic outlook, which could weaken the USD.
Subsequently, on Thursday, another high-impact US economic release is expected with the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy. Slated for release at 12:30 PM, this is a favored inflation measure for the Federal Reserve when considering monetary policy adjustments. Elevated readings may increase expectations for interest rate hikes, bolstering the USD, while lower readings could have the opposite effect by suggesting subdued inflation pressures.
Shifting focus to Canada, the key upcoming event is the speech by the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem. Scheduled for Wednesday at 08:15 PM, this speech is highly anticipated as Governor Macklem’s statements often provide insights into future monetary policy directions. Markets will be closely monitoring his speech for any indications on interest rate adjustments or economic forecasts that could influence the CAD’s performance. Hawkish comments may support the CAD, whereas dovish tones could weigh it down.
Taking into account these upcoming events, several scenarios could influence the USDCAD. Strong US data coupled with tightened future monetary policies could continue to support the USD, potentially driving the USDCAD higher. Conversely, dovish tones from both the US and Canadian central banks or disappointing US economic data releases could favor the CAD, possibly causing a decline in the USDCAD rate. Market participants will be vigilant to these developments in the near term, and any unexpected announcements or results could amplify market volatility accordingly.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Tuesday rose 0.16% to 1.39137. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.39381 with break above could target R2 at 1.39626 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.38720 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.39295 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.13% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.39956 |
| R2 | 1.39626 |
| R1 | 1.39381 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.39051 |
| S1 | 1.38806 |
| S2 | 1.38476 |
| S3 | 1.38231 |
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