AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.26% to 0.65590. Week ending 2024-11-01 moved lower by -0.67%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.26%	-17.2 Pips
Week 2024-11-01	-0.67%	-44.4 Pips
November	-0.34%	-22.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election
Tue 03:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)

What happened over the week

In the United States, October witnessed some conflicting economic indicators, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the U-6 Total labor underutilization measure showed an unusual increase to 40%, up from 7.7% in September – a significant divergence that indicates potential anomalies or reporting errors. Nonfarm payroll employment dramatically fell to 12,000, impacted by natural events, from the previous 223,000. Average hourly earnings remained unchanged month-over-month at 0.4%, though the 12-month rate was revised to an increase of 4%. Job openings also declined to 7.443 million. Moreover, economic growth saw a dip with the GDP flash estimate for Q3 decreasing to 2.8% from 3%, alongside changes in the PCE Price Index metrics which indicated slight decreasing pressure.

Australia’s economic situation during the third quarter also presented mixed results as documented by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Producer Price Index dropped to 3.9% on an annual basis, down from 4.8%. Retail trade turnover showed promising growth, increasing by 0.5% after a contraction in Q2. However, the monthly retail turnover for September experienced a slowdown to 0.1%, and consumer inflation metrics revealed cooling trends. Building approvals bounced back significantly to 4.4% in September, suggesting a potential recovery in the housing sector. Furthermore, the Trimmed Mean CPI for Q3 stayed constant, even as CPI inflation moderated, indicating a stable core consumer price pattern.

The AUD/USD exchange rate has been under significant pressure, dropping for the fifth consecutive week to hit a 12-week low, closing at 0.6559 on Friday. The decline can be attributed to negative sentiment surrounding both domestic and international economic conditions. The impending U.S. presidential election and U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates represent critical events that might influence future market dynamics. Additionally, Australia’s RBA Monetary Policy Decision could also impact the currency pair. Given the current landscape, any further deviation or volatility in these economies’ fundamental measures may continue to exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD, unless notably favorable economic developments arise for the Australian dollar.

From X (Twitter)

"The September quarter’s rise of 0.2% is the lowest outcome since the June 2020 quarter fall which occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak and was driven by free childcare," Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics

For more, see https://t.co/8yyIrJYyZM pic.twitter.com/hQT1Hepnlz

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) October 30, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.26% to 0.66. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-01, the pair dropped -0.67% or -44.4 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.65 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.65 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.66 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.65 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is down by -0.34% or -22.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
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Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
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