EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -1.05% | -114.4 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -1.3% | -141.7 Pips | |
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| November | -1.41% | -153.3 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
What happened lately
In the United States, Donald Trump has successfully secured a win in the 2024 presidential race against Harris, marking him as the 47th president of the country. This political shift could influence various economic policies and market behaviors in the upcoming years, with potential impacts on both domestic and international fronts.
In the Euro Area, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a significant decrease, as reported by Eurostat. The PPI fell to -3.4% from -2.3% in August, indicating a continuing downward trend in the prices producers receive for their goods. On a month-over-month basis, the PPI decreased from 0.6% in August to -0.6% in September, suggesting that producer prices are reducing more sharply than expected in the region.
Germany’s economic data presented a mix of positive indicators. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), new manufacturing orders in September (not seasonally adjusted) improved to 1% from a previous -3.9% in August. Moreover, when seasonally adjusted, there was a notable increase of 4.2% in new orders, recovering from a revised -5.8% to -5.4% in the previous period. These figures indicate a robust recovery in manufacturing demand, which could bolster Germany’s industrial sector.
The recent drop of EURUSD to 1.07328, a decline of 1.05%, reflects multiple influences stemming from these economic indicators. The substantial decrease in the Euro Area’s PPI can exert downward pressure on the euro, as it may anticipate further monetary easing or depict weak industrial activity. Meanwhile, Germany’s positive manufacturing data could provide some support to the euro, although it appears overshadowed by the broader Euro Area trends. Concurrently, political changes in the US, with Trump’s election, might inject uncertainty or anticipation of new economic policies, thus influencing the US dollar’s strength. Investors might adopt a precautionary approach as they await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is a significant upcoming event being anticipated. Any divergence from expected monetary policy could further sway the EURUSD currency pair.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Wednesday dropped -1.05% to 1.07328. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.0631 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.05293. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.09369 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.06822 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.3%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.11404 |
| R2 | 1.10387 |
| R1 | 1.08857 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.0784 |
| S1 | 1.0631 |
| S2 | 1.05293 |
| S3 | 1.03763 |
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