AUDUSD on Friday dropped -1.2% to 0.65823. Week ending 2024-11-08 moved lower by -0.15%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-1.2%	-79.7 Pips
Week 2024-11-08	-0.15%	-9.6 Pips
November	0.08%	5.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM Veterans Day
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 11:00 PM RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech
Thu 12:30 AM Labour Force Monthly Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 08:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Fri 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, multiple developments indicate shifts in economic sentiment and activity. The University of Michigan reported an increase in the Index of Consumer Sentiment to 73 points from 70.5 in the previous month, signaling improved consumer optimism. The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75% from 5% could suggest an accommodative monetary policy stance, potentially spurring economic activity. Conversely, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted a reduction in Unit Labor Costs in Q3 to 2.4%, down from an earlier estimation of 4%, potentially easing inflationary pressures. Simultaneously, initial unemployment claims slightly increased to 221,000 as reported by the Department of Labor, reflecting marginal labor market fluctuations. Additionally, U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity declined to 2.2% in Q3 from 2.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau indicated a marginal improvement in new orders for manufactured goods, decreasing by only 0.5% in September from a 0.8% decline in August. Politically, Donald Trump’s reelection as the 47th president may introduce new policy dynamics impacting future economic trends.

Australia experienced a downturn in its international trade metrics as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Imports of goods contracted by 3.1% in September compared to a 0.2% decrease in August. Exports also diminished, falling by 4.3% after a stable August. The country’s trade surplus subsequently decreased significantly to 4,609 million Australian dollars from 5,644 million. Despite these adverse trade figures, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to maintain the Cash Rate Target at 4.35% suggests a cautious approach in response to current economic conditions, possibly prioritizing economic stability over growth in light of global uncertainties.

The AUD/USD currency pair has been influenced by these economic developments, as highlighted by a 1.2% drop in its value to 0.65823. While the pair hit a 13-week low, it recovered to a 2-week high, showing volatility in response to the shifting economic landscapes of both nations. The strengthening U.S. economic sentiment and the Fed’s rate cut, juxtaposed with Australia’s declining trade numbers, may exert downward pressure on the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. However, upcoming economic events, including inflation data in the U.S., speeches by central bank officials, and Australian labor force statistics, are set to provide further cues on the likely direction of the AUD/USD pair.

From X (Twitter)

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent. Read more: https://t.co/KeqpooMAyM pic.twitter.com/TzQd2CY6Dx

— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) November 5, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -1.2% to 0.66. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-08, the pair dropped -0.15% or -9.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.67 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.66. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.65 or 0.65 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.65 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is up by 0.08% or 5.5 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision Source: Reserve Bank of Australia